Cynicism or experience?

I realised yesterday my cynicism about management in general is hitting a low point when a friend was discussing a win-win proposal they'd taken to their manager, his apparent willingness to consider it, and promise to get back to them with a decision later in the week.

I almost replied to them with this, but held back because their optimism will be crushed soon enough without needing any contribution from me:

Your manager is presented with two options: one is a carefully-considered proposal that's been run past the stakeholders, benefits everyone concerned and has no discernible downsides. The other is something they picked up in a bar last night from a crazy homeless man who throws diseased sewer rats at schoolchildren in his spare time.

Based on all the evidence to date, who do you really think management are more likely to listen to?

It's entirely possible, of course, that I'm projecting just a little...